Monday, November 15, 2010

Buy or Sell? Brandon Roy Rookie Cards

I first became familiar with Brandon Roy when he led his #1 seeded Washington Huskies over my alma mater, number eight seed Pacific, in the 2nd round of the 2005 NCAA Tournament . Roy has the type of court skills you dream about having, and at 6'-6" he has the size to elevate and get his shot when he needs to. The problem is that Roy hasn't been able to stay healthy during his 4+ seasons in the NBA. The story is no different this season as I've read some rumors that his knee is really messed up, although he has played in all of the Blazers games thus far.

The value of Roy's rookie cards have fallen off since the 08/09 season where he played in a career high 78 games and averaged 22.6 points per game, with 5 assist and 4+ rebounds. Those are the types of numbers players like Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant are capable of putting up. Roy has the ability to be a top 10 NBA player but the health might derail his career and destroy the value of his cards. The two players who have a similar game to Roy that I can think of who got killed by injuries were Grant Hill and Alan Houston. Hill was one of the leagues best players while Houston was more of a shooter but still put up huge scoring numbers. You had to have a Grant Hill Rookie waaaaay back in the day and I could only imagine if autograph and game used cards were popular in that era how much Hill's cards would have fetched on eBay when he was the hottest name in the game.

So what do you do if Roy is your guy and you have a bunch of cards, or have been waiting on a particular card to buy/sell? If Roy is able to bounce back from injury then he could be a buy low candidate. Here are the other two top players from the 2006 NBA Draft, along with Roy, and how much their 2006/07 Upper Deck Exquisite Patch Autograph Rookie, serial numbered #/100, have sold for during the first month of the NBA season. We'll see what Roy sells for now that he is struggling, previously sales had been in the $120-175 range. Anything less than $100.00 I would consider a good buy because you can see the potential if he ever gets hot again - Rajon Rondo's Exquisite RC's have sold as high as $500+ recently.

2006/07 Upper Deck Exquisite Patch Autograph Rookie
#8 Pick: Rudy Gay $122 - $180
#21 Pick: Rajon Rondo $250 - $530

BRANDON ROY EXQUISITE ROOKIE AUTO PATCH /100
Watchers: 14
Current Price: $16.50
Final Price: $129.50
Auction Ends: November 22

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